Qala ngokugcina amandla phantsi kweenjongo ezinkulu

Isishwankathelo

GGII iqikelela ukuba ihlabathiibhetri yokugcina amandlaUkuthunyelwa kuya kufikelela kwi-416GWh ngo-2025, kunye nesantya sokukhula ngonyaka malunga ne-72.8% kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo.

Ekuphononongeni amanyathelo kunye neendlela zokunyuka kwekhabhoni kunye nokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni, imboni yebhetri ye-lithium, njenge-intersection yamandla kunye nokuthutha, iya kudlala indima ebaluleke kakhulu.

Kwelinye icala, ixabiso leebhetri ze-lithium liye lehla kakhulu, ukusebenza kwebhetri kuye kwaphuculwa ngokuqhubekayo, isikali somthamo wemveliso siqhubekile sisanda, kwaye imigaqo-nkqubo efanelekileyo iphunyezwe enye emva kwenye, ibonelela ngendlela ethembekileyo yeebhetri ze-lithium ukuya. ngena kwiukugcinwa kwamandlaimarike ngomlinganiselo omkhulu.

Ngonyuso olukhulu lweiibhetri zamandla, ixabiso le-lithium ibhetri ye-electrochemicalukugcinwa kwamandlayehle ngokukhawuleza.Okwangoku, ixabiso lasekhayaiiseli zokugcina amandlaisondele kwi-0.7 yuan/Wh, kunye neendleko zeiinkqubo zokugcina amandla ebhetri ye-lithiumyehlele malunga ne-1.5 yuan/Wh, ingenisaukugcinwa kwamandlauqoqosho.Indawo yokutshintsha ngokwesondo.

Ngokoqikelelo lweshishini, iindleko zokuqala zeukugcinwa kwamandlainkqubo kulindeleke ukuba yehle ukuya ku-0.84 yuan/Wh ngo-2025, inika inkxaso eyomeleleyo yokuthengiswa kwayo ngokupheleleyo.

Kwelinye icala, inflection point yeibhetri ye-lithium yokugcina amandlaimarike sele iza kufikelela incopho yekhabhoni kunye nokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni.Imfuno yemarike yehlabathi yeukugcinwa kwamandlakwicala lokuvelisa amandla, icala lokuhambisa kunye nokuhanjiswa, icala lomsebenzisi, kunye nesiseko sogcino lwesikhululo samandla siye saqhuma, sibonelela ngethuba elihle lophuhliso lweenkampani zebhetri zelithium ukungenaibhetri ye-lithium yokugcina amandlaimarike.

GGII iqikelela ukuba ihlabathiibhetri yokugcina amandlaUkuthunyelwa kuya kufikelela kwi-416GWh ngo-2025, kunye nesantya sokukhula ngonyaka malunga ne-72.8% kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo.

Iukugcinwa kwamandlaimakethe yebhetri ye-lithium ingena kwindlela yokukhawuleza

Ukusukela ngo-2021, ihlabathi jikeleleukugcinwa kwamandlaImakethi yebhetri ye-lithium ifumene ukukhula okuqhumayo.Iinkampani ezininzi zebhetri ye-lithium zigcweleukugcinwa kwamandlaiiodolo, kunye neemveliso zinqongophele.

Ngaphesheya kolwandleukugcinwa kwamandla ekhayakwimarike, uTesla ubhengeze ukuba i-cumulative efakwe amandla ayoInkqubo yokugcina amandla yasekhaya yePowerwallidlule kwiiyunithi ezingama-250,000 kwihlabathi liphela, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba yayoI-Powerwalliintengiso ziya kuqhubeka zikhula ngesantya malunga neeyunithi ze-100,000 ngonyaka kwixesha elizayo.

Kwangelo xesha, uTesla uphumelele iiodolo ezininzi zeMegapackukugcinwa kwamandlakwihlabathi jikelele ngo-2021, ukubonelelaiinkqubo zokugcina amandlaukuya kuthi ga kumakhulu eeMWh kumashishini amaninziiiprojekthi zokugcina amandla.

Kulo nyaka uphelileyo, iTesla isebenzise ngaphezu kwe-4GWh yomthamo wokugcina (kuquka i-Powerwalls, i-Powerpacks kunye ne-Megapacks).

Ukwanda kwemfuno kwihlabathiibhetri ye-lithium yokugcina amandlaimakethi ikwabonelele ngenani leenkampani zebhetri zaseTshayina ezinokhuphiswano oluqinileyo endle.

Okwangoku, iinkampani zebhetri ezibandakanya i-CATL, i-AVIC Lithium, i-BYD, i-Ruipu Energy, i-Lishen Battery, i-Guoxuan Hi-Tech, i-Yiwei Lithium Energy, i-Penghui Energy, i-Haiji New Energy, i-Anchi Technology, i-Haihong Technology kunye nezinye iinkampani zebhetri zandisa ubunzima babo.Icandelo loshishino lokugcina amandla.

Kwicala legridi, iCATL kunye neYiwei Lithium ziphumelele ngokulandelelana iiodolo zenqanaba leGWhiibhetri zokugcina amandlaukusuka kwiPowin Energy, umdibanisi wenkqubo yokugcina amandla yaseMelika.Ukongeza, i-CATL iphinde yangena kwi-Tesla Megapackibhetri yokugcina amandlaikhonkco lokubonelela, ekulindeleke ukuba livule ukukhula okutsha.iklasi.

Kwicala labasebenzisi, iinkampani zaseTshayina zithatha ezimbini kwezi-5 eziphezuluinkqubo yokugcina amandlaababoneleli behlabathi, ngelixa iinkampani zebhetri ezifana nePaine Energy, iRuipu Energy, kunye nePenghui Energy zinamandla okuvelisa ngokupheleleyo kunye nokuthengisa okupheleleyo.Ezinye iiodolo kulindeleke ukuba zicwangciselwe ukuphela konyaka ozayo.

Kwisiseko samandla okugcina isikhululo, iinkampani ezininzi zebhetri ezibandakanya iZhongtian Technology, Shuangdeng Co., Ltd., Haistar, Narada Power, Topbond Co., Ltd., Yiwei Lithium Energy, Linkage Tianyi kunye nezinye iinkampani zebhetri ziphumelele iibhidi ngamaxesha amaninzi, ekubeni isiseko sasekhaya isiseko sogcino amandla LFP intsimi yebhetri.Uphumelele ibhidi "yeNdlu enkulu".

Kuyaphawuleka ukuba uninzi lweinkqubo yokugcina amandla ekhayaababoneleli kwimimandla ephuhlisiwe njengeYurophu, iMelika, iJapan kunye neSouth Korea ziinkampani zasekhaya, kwaye iibhetri ze-ternary ze-LG Energy, i-Panasonic kunye ne-Samsung SDI zizona zihamba phambili malunga nokuxhasa iibhetri.

Nangona kunjalo, iinkampani zebhetri zaseTshayina ziphuhlise ngokukodwa iiseli ze-LFP zeukugcinwa kwamandlaimarike ukuphucula ngakumbi ukhuseleko lwaboiinkqubo zokugcina amandlaekuphenduleni ubomi obude, ukhuseleko oluphezulu, kunye neemfuno zexabiso eliphantsiiibhetri zokugcina amandla.

Ukuze kuhlangatyezwane ngakumbi neemfuno ezikhulayo zeukugcinwa kwamandlaukuthengisa kunye nokwandisa ukukhuphisana, iinkampani zebhetri ezikhankanywe ngasentla nazo ziyakwandisa umthamo wemveliso yeiibhetri zokugcina amandla.Kwaye amanye amasimi okuphumeza ubeko olujikelezayo, i-Nuggets yetriliyoniukugcinwa kwamandlaimarike.

Kukho imfuneko engxamisekileyo yokuphucula ukusebenza kokhuseleko lweukugcina amandla iibhetri ze-lithium

Ngelixa imfuno yemarike yeukugcina amandla iibhetri ze-lithiumiyaqhubeka ikhula, uthotho lweinkqubo yokugcina amandlaIingozi zomlilo zenze isithunzi kwiibhetri ye-lithium yokugcina amandlaishishini kwaye yakhala i-alarm yokhuseleko kwiinkampani zebhetri ze-lithium.

Idatha ibonisa ukuba ukususela ngo-2017, ngaphezu kwe-30inkqubo yokugcina amandlaIingozi zomlilo zenzeke eMzantsi Korea, ezibandakanya i-LG Energy kunye ne-Samsung SDI, zonke iibhetri ze-ternary.

Phakathi kwabo, iingozi zomlilo ezingaphezu kwama-20 zenzeke kwindawoinkqubo yokugcina amandlaye-LG Energy kwihlabathi jikelele ngenxa yomngcipheko wobushushu kunye nomlilo kwiiseli zayo.

KweyeKhala kulo nyaka uphelileyo, iVictoria 300MW/450MWhindawo yokugcina amandla ombaneeOstreliya yavutha ngexesha lovavanyo.Iiprojekthi yokugcina amandlawasebenzisa iyonke 210 Tesla Megapacks ngeukugcinwa kwamandlaumthamo wama-450MWh, nawo axhotyiswe ngeebhetri ze-ternary.

Kuyafaneleka ukuba uqaphele ukuba akusiyo kuphela ibhetri ye-ternary esemngciphekweni womlilo.

NgoAprili kulo nyaka uphelileyo, iBeijing Dahongmenindawo yokugcina amandla ombaneyaqhuma.Isizathu sengozi yayiyintsilelo yangaphakathi ye-short-circuit ye-battery ye-LFP esetyenziswe kwinkqubo, ebangela ukuba i-thermal iphelelwe kulawulo kwaye ibambe umlilo.

Ingozi yomlilo ekhankanywe ngasentla yeinkqubo yokugcina amandlaibonisa ukuba zininzi iinkampani ezithatha inxaxheba kukhuphiswano kwiibhetri ye-lithium yokugcina amandlamarket, kodwa umgangatho imveliso ayilingani, kunye nokusebenza ukhuseleko lweibhetri yokugcina amandlaifuna ukuphuculwa ngakumbi.

Kule nkalo, amashishini ebhetri ye-lithium kufuneka aphucule kwaye aphucule ngokwenkqubo yezinto eziluhlaza, inkqubo yokuvelisa, isakhiwo senkqubo, njl., kunye nokuphucula ngakumbi ukhuseleko lwaboibhetri ye-lithiumiimveliso ngokwazisa imathiriyeli emitsha kunye nokwamkela iinkqubo ezintsha, kunye nokuphucula ukhuphiswano olubanzi lwamashishini.